Results of the analysis of Medium-term and Long-term Forecasts for Labor Market Development and Future Demand and Supply of Labor in Bulgaria

The results of the analysis of Medium-term and Long-term Forecasts for Labor Market Development and Future Demand and Supply of Labor in Bulgaria have been presented on the 10th, October, 2019 at Park Hotel "Moscow". The Labor Market Forecast Project started in 2013, and the Business Education Foundation is part of the consortium involved in its implementation.

In his welcome speech the Minister of Labor and Social Policy Bisser Petkov expressed gratitude to the research team that prepared the forecast report. He announced the creation of an online platform where the results will be available online and outlined the main trends.

By 2030, the number of employed in Bulgaria will fall below 3 million. The number of employed will decrease with 190 thousand, most of whom will be persons with primary and lower education.

By 2030, there will be a structural surplus of people with tertiary education of about 38 000, as well as a shortage of workers with secondary education with more than 77 000 jobs.

These discrepancies will be addressed by the new employment strategy with horizon 2030. The most important measures will be:

- improving investment in quality, adequate education and lifelong learning, in line with the needs of the labor market, rethinking the concepts of "knowledge, skills, learning". Curricula need to be updated not only by introducing new topics, but by new knowledge and skills;

- policies to promote giving birth and balancing demographic decline;

- active measures to activate the unemployed, the disabled, the retention of senior employees,

- career guidance and support for a better balance between personal and professional life, including changing the attitude of employers when hiring employees (young women, people with disabilities, seniors);

- income policy, providing motivating payments - the pressure in this direction will increase in the coming years due to staff shortages. Otherwise, we will witness an even greater brain drain.

- targeted investment in sectors such as healthcare and adult care, education, science and culture, which is an indicator of the development of a society;

- encouraging investment in highly specialized sectors, research, innovation and technological development of the economy.

Assoc. Prof. Ralitsa Ganeva focused on the main conclusions of the report. Among the challenges she outlined were:

- the development of information and communication technologies and job automation;

- demographic changes such as decreasing and aging population, increasing cohorts with adults over 55; decline in the working population - in the medium term by 3.7% to 4.3 million. In the long run, the data is even more challenging.

- democracy in education and increasing the number of university graduates. By 2024, more than 1/4 of the population will have tertiary education. Employment is above 90 percent, with a moderate average saving and a slight decrease in the long term, while employment in people with primary and lower education decreases.

- strong regionalization, urbanization, mobility, which has a strong impact on employment, mostly focused on Sofia, Plovdiv, Varna and Burgas.

Employment will be concentrated in several sectors:

- processing (21.6%) - mainly food and textile industry, production of metal and metal products;

- 16.1% trade and repairs - it is expected to shrink by 16% in the medium term and by another 12% in the long term

- 8,4% - construction

- 8.2% -16% government

- 7,3% - transport

- 6,9% - education

- 6,1% - Health

- Only 3.2% are employed in ICT (just over 94 thousand) !!! Ralitsa Ganeva emphasized the leading role of this cluster in creating a knowledge economy with high added value and the need for more investment in the development of the technology sector. It anticipates sustainable employment. The myth is that they are highly qualified, many have secondary education, the youngest sector, only 10% are over 50, 60% are men.

On the other pole are the education and health sectors, with a predominant share of women, aging staff and a huge shortage of human resources.

Among the discrepancies observed in the labor market are the so-called underemployment in which persons with high educational attainment are engaged in lower-skilled positions (taxi drivers, salesmen, receptionists, etc.). In Europe, this problem affects 1 in 4 people with tertiary education, and in 10-15 years the same situation will be observed in our country.

Accordingly, there is an inverse trend of over-employment - hiring employees with lower than required qualifications due to shortage of staff.

The reasons for the discrepancies are:

- Overtake of highly qualified employees.

- An employment structure dominated by medium-skilled labor demand

- Non-competitive remuneration, which leads to the shift of higher education to higher-paying jobs or to migration.

- Shortage of specialists in certain branches.

Medical and educational professionals are the leading professions in which there will be an increasing demand by 2024. At the same time, it will reduce the demand for sellers, waiters and cooks.

Sector details reveal what the leading professions after 15 years will be - namely, workers and machine operators again. For example, in the telecommunications sector where Bulgaria has no production, sellers are also demnaded.

The report is published on the MLSP website: 1) .pdf


Time Capsule “Jobs of the Future” contest for young people aged 13-19

FUTURE Contest-Youth banner EN

Young people from the Generation Z, are you ready for the jobs of the future? How do you imagine a job in 2050 that doesn’t exist yet?

We challenge you to Take part in the contest for young people aged 13-19 and share your vision about how the jobs of the future will look like.

Get on board now!

You have 2 options to participate:

(1) Join our Future Time Traveller career game. It will take you to the year 2050 with the mission to explore the future and become its ambassador. 

The game will help you explore how the world is going to change in the future, what challenges will need to be addressed; and what are the key drivers and trends that will shape the world of work.

(2) or you can submit your ideas directly via the online application form 

Then you will have to prepare a short description of a job that doesn’t exist yet, but can emerge in the next decades.

Tell us how you imagine it: How will this job of the future look like? What kind of tasks is it going to include? Who is going to perform it and what skills will it demand?

You can describe the future job in one of the following formats:

  • in a short essay (up to 500 words);
  • in a PowerPoint presentation (up to 5 slides and some images);
  • in a short video (up to 1 minute).

Take part in the contest and you can win some of our cool tech gadgets awards!

Find out more information about the contest here

Wings partner meeting in Prague and Newsletter 2

The WINGS partnership has gathered in Prague to plan their next steps. 

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So far the partners researched the entrepreneurship development and the entrepreneurial education in their countries, and have surveyed the use of innovative technologies, such as mobile applications, online games, virtual environments, etc in the training process.

 In the period March – April 2019 the wINGS partnership conducted an online research in the 6 partner countries – Bulgaria, Cyprus, Czech Republic, Poland, Portugal and Spain. The survey aimed to evaluate and analyze the trainers and educators’ competences on the level of Virtual Gaming and ICT-usage, as well as their opinion regarding the advantages and disadvantages of the use of these resources in learning and teaching processes.300 teachers and trainers took part in the survey. 45% of the respondents use ICT resources in their classes most days of the week,19% - once a week, 18% - once a month, 12% - once or couple of times a year and 5% - never. Most of the respondents feel confident in their ICT mastery, and 16% lack confidence.There are no strict requirements about ICT training of teaching staff in the participants’ schools. 63% of the teachers and trainers say they are not obliged to pass an ICT training.30% of the teachers have participated in no ICT training at all or in one that was shorter than a day during the past 2 years.72% of teachers and trainers who took part in the survey have been involved in introductory course on internet use and general applications and 66%have improved their ICT skills through self-development. In Bulgaria, Czech Republic and Poland more than 80% rely on self-development.The survey participants mostly use internet-based resources for preparing lessons and training materials.The large majority of the respondents agree completely or to a great extent about the benefits of ICT at school. More than 80% of the participants are convinced in the educational impact of virtual games or agree that it is worthwhile implementing them in the training process, especially for skill building and motivation.The biggest concerns regarding the use of virtual gaming at school are the lack of adequate skills of teachers, insufficient computers and internet and lack of technical support.

Based on the results, the consortium will elaborate online training program and serious educational games, which will aim to support the startups and entrepreneurs in the successful internationalization of their companies.

 The training will focus on developing the Global entrepreneurship mindset and the core entrepreneurial competencies, the intercultural communication, change management, marketing and business skills of the learners. 

Follow our Facebook page and the Wings project website for more up-to-date information.


Project No: 2018-1-CY01-KA202-046856

This project has been funded with support from the European Commission. This communication reflects the views only of the author, and the Commission cannot be held responsible for any use which may be made of the information contained therein.




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